The Global Equity Score falls slightly but remains neutral, ending its 7-month up-trend. We use this possible inflection point signal to look into how the ACWI behaves over different forward return horizons based on the level and change in the Global Equity Score. We find the current score dynamics ...
The Supreme Court is a generator of certainty rather than uncertainty for US markets. In the event of a constitutional crisis, a court intervention will likely reduce volatility....
Collapsed complexity, plus the unwinding of favourable base effects and favourable seasonal adjustments to the inflation and jobs numbers, all pose a danger to the Goldilocks market....
Some investors have thrown in the towel on investing in Chinese equities, instead deploying capital in EM ex-China – or at least contemplating doing so. This report examines the merits of investing in EM ex-China stocks and concludes that EM – whether including or excluding China - will continue und...
History suggests that a “soft landing” is highly unlikely after such an aggressive Fed tightening cycle. The rally could continue for a little longer but, on the 12-month horizon, market risks are very skewed to the downside....
The trajectory of China’s infrastructure investment in 2023H2 will be like what occurred in 2021H2. Growth will likely drop from the current nominal 10% to 0-2% in the next six months. China will continue promoting environmentally friendly infrastructure projects that may prevent a contraction in in...
We recently collaborated with Irene Tunkel, our US Equity Strategist, and are excited to share with you her latest views on earnings growth. She quotes sales growth and falling input costs as tailwinds for earnings growth. However, rising labor costs will diminish a firms' ability to pass on labor c...
The ECB’s tone has changed decisively. Intransigent forward guidance is gone; data dependency is in. What does this transition mean for the path of European interest rates and the euro?...
Investors remain cautious about the US economy and still have significant cash that needs to be put to work which could extend the rally further. Earnings rebound later in the year will be supported by rising sales growth and surging earnings of the Magnificent Seven. A restocking cycle, and a picku...
