Latest from BCA Research

Rising Russia-NATO risks, tactical oil/gold trades, tougher sanctions on Russia (maybe China), China stimulus with ~5% growth target, and US checks on Trump’s ambitions will define Q4.

Bank Credit Analyst

In Section II, Jonathan shows how valuation-adjusted fundamental momentum has been a successful tool for ranking global sectors.

Bank Credit Analyst

In Section I, Doug highlights that benchmark positioning in equities, fixed income and cash is now recommended. Still, the US macro situation warrants continual monitoring, given weakening labor market momentum. In Section II, Jonathan shows how valuation-adjusted fundamental momentum has been a successful tool for ranking global sectors.

Special Report

The AI capex boom is having a measurable impact on the economy but, so far, it is more muted than often cited.

Chilean equities are undergoing a structural re-rating. A political swing back to a pro-business administration, a benign macro backdrop, and a resilient exchange rate will drive Chilean markets’ outperformance versus EM peers.

Special Report

This week’s US Bond Strategy Special Report takes a look at the two most provocative papers presented at last month’s Jackson Hole conference.

Our high-frequency indicators show China’s growth momentum weakening further in September, increasing the likelihood of new stimulus in the weeks ahead. We remain tactically cautious on Chinese equities, but strategically constructive on offshore Chinese shares.

Putin’s position is weakening as Trump backs Ukraine, NATO threatens retaliation, and Ukrainian drones cripple Russian refineries. Moscow’s petty war aims embolden Eastern Europe, raising NATO-Russia confrontation risks. We remain long oil and long European defense stocks.

We give a one-third probability of a federal government shutdown. It probably will not happen before November. At worst, government shutdowns only cause temporary market volatility.

Special Report

The US Treasury safe haven status is being seriously questioned. We assess whether US Treasuries are still unrivaled or which bond markets and assets are gaining ground. We do so by breaking down which global bond markets are best positioned to absorb risk-off flows in a shifting macro regime.