Latest from BCA Research

Median Fed unemployment rate projections are overly optimistic. The Fed will end up cutting more in 2026 than it currently anticipates.

Special Report

China’s policy-driven constraints prevent the “destruction” part of the creative destruction process. Instead, they entrench overcapacity, deflation, and poor profitability. We are reluctant to chase the rally in Chinese stocks in absolute terms.

Special Report

Private Markets are entering a new phase as TPA and Evergreen funds expand. Shifts in access, implementation, and market leadership will have important implications for institutions, Wealth Management, and future Private Equity returns.

Indonesia’s policy easing will boost domestic demand, but fuel inflation. Current account deficit will widen, and the rupiah will weaken. Stay short the rupiah and go underweight Indonesian stocks, domestic bonds, and sovereign credit in their respective EM portfolios.

Special Report

Structural tailwinds help explain tight credit spreads. In Europe, we see room for further tightening. Stay underweight US credit amid cyclical risks, but upgrade Euro Area IG to overweight and HY to neutral.

This week, our screeners explore two AI-related investment ideas as well as opportunities arising from the politically induced sell-off in French stocks.

From Treasurys to tokenization, stablecoins are quietly becoming one of the most disruptive forces in global finance, with the power to compress yields, deepen dollar penetration, and shift the balance within crypto markets. Explore BCA’s latest insights on their growing impact.

Political instability across Asia is colliding with the trade war fallout, forcing Southeast Asian economies to ease monetary and fiscal policy, while pushing the Bank of Japan in the opposite direction.

We are turning more constructive on Chinese internet stocks after several years of caution. We recommend going long offshore internet equities in absolute terms and upgrading MSCI China to overweight in a global equity portfolio.

While it is impossible to know exactly when global equities will peak, there are now enough vulnerabilities to justify keeping one’s finger near the eject button.