Latest from BCA Research

Going into April, MacroQuant recommends a modest underweight on stocks, offset by an overweight on bonds and cash. While MacroQuant is modestly bearish on stocks, we suspect that the downside risks to equities may be greater than what the model assumes.

With economic headwinds building and fiscal dynamics shifting, bond markets are at a turning point. Our latest note outlines why German bund yields are set to decline and why UK gilts are poised to outperform — and how to position accordingly.

This report looks at investment implications, for Norwegian assets, given the recent meeting, from the Norges Bank.

This week, our three screeners cover equity plays for if a US recession is not imminent, avoiding value traps, and which sectors exhibit the highest dividend payers.

This morning’s weak consumer spending and strong inflation data reinforce our sense that the US economy is heading toward recession.

Stocks will continue to struggle in the second quarter as President Trump tries to implement tariffs. Tax cuts will only temporarily dispel growth fears, if at all. Middle Eastern instability will add oil price surprises to an environment that is looking fairly stagflationary.

In this Second Quarter Strategy Outlook, we explore the major trends that are set to drive financial markets for the rest of 2025 and beyond.

Bank Credit Analyst

In Section II, Jonathan presents a new indicator that investors can use to track the odds of bubble formation in real time and shows how it fits into a larger framework that accurately explains US bear market severity over the past century. The US equity market is not in a bubble today, but it is meaningfully overvalued. Investors should expect a relatively severe cumulative loss from equities in a recession scenario.

Bank Credit Analyst

In Section I, Doug notes that weak US consumer sentiment is beginning to manifest. A wide sweep of consumer-facing companies have lowered guidance, and monoline credit card lenders shed nearly 20% over just three weeks across late February and early March. If the US enters a recession sometime this year as we expect, it will likely lead to a global recession and a global equity bear market. Investors should remain defensively positioned. In Section II, Jonathan presents a new indicator that investors can use to track the odds of bubble formation in real time and shows how it fits into a larger framework that accurately explains US bear market severity over the past century. The US equity market is not in a bubble today, but it is meaningfully overvalued. Investors should expect a relatively severe cumulative loss from equities in a recession scenario.

Special Report

Lithium prices have collapsed by nearly 90% from the late-2022 peak. How will lithium markets evolve from here? In this report, we explore the cyclical and structural outlook for supply, demand, and prices. We conclude that prices are likely to remain contained over the coming 12 to 18 months before facing upside pressure later this decade.