Latest from BCA Research
President Donald Trump and his counterpart President Vladimir Putin have met at an air force base in Alaska. The backdrop? America’s shiny F-22 Raptors ominously gleaming on the tarmac, a clear show of force by the US. A reminder that President Trump may be quite friendly with Putin, but that he will not hesitate to impose pain on Moscow if the Kremlin keeps dragging out the conflict in Ukraine.
This week our three screeners highlight plays in global small-cap value stocks, gold miners, and stocks exposed to an exciting structural investment theme: Space.
The Indian rupee remains vulnerable to further depreciation amid slowing growth, tight domestic policy, and fragile capital flows. Trade risks and a weakening external balance will likely keep INR underperforming EM Asia peers.
The cost of tariffs is falling on the US consumer, not foreign exporters or US firms.
Trump’s political capital is near its peak. But near-term optimism will give way to a new round of volatility. Contrary to expectations, the USD may benefit.
Colombian markets will be torn between expectations of future orthodox policies and the reality of a worsening macro backdrop in the next 12 months. To balance risks, we are upgrading Colombian equities, local bonds, and sovereign credit from underweight to neutral versus their respective EM benchmarks.
In a widely anticipated move, the RBA resumed cutting rates. However, with housing, consumption, and PMIs improving, we see little scope for the RBA to ease beyond market expectations.
This morning’s CPI report marginally tips the scales in favor of a September rate cut.