I spent the last week in London, speaking to a wide array of BCA Research clients. Throughout the early part of the week, well connected friends and sources in the Middle East warned me that a renewed US attack on Iran was imminent (by Friday, May 22, after the market close, bien sûr). Several clien...
Against the earnings-versus-everything-else market backdrop, stellar earnings are easily outweighing elevated oil prices, rising yields and the increased probability that the Fed may hike rates before the year is out. US allocators should remain invested in equities....
Europe is sliding from stagflation toward recession as prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz weaken growth, labor markets, and supply chains while keeping inflation elevated. Even if a US-Iran deal is reached, limited fiscal support and rising food inflation leave the Euro Area increasingly ...
AI could be as transformative as the Agricultural or Industrial Revolutions. However, the fact that you are reading these words at the dawn of the AI age hints at a darker possibility, which is that AI will lead to humanity's demise. Fortunately, the most straightforward interpretation of quantum me...
US stocks and bonds are on a collision course. Only a meaningful equity selloff is likely to pull bond yields considerably lower. Global equity risk-reward looks poor. The dollar will stay firm near term, but its medium- and long-term outlook remains bearish....
In this month’s Beta Report, we assess what that structural tension means for investors under two distinct scenarios. In our base case – a multipolar world order – Australia's position turns out to be more advantageous than it appears. The great power capital expenditure race generates demand for pr...
US growth remains positive and is now improving, with the economy seemingly exiting Slowdown and proceeding into Expansion. Markets are reflecting the shift, rewarding revenue growth and capex growth, while earnings expectations continue to advance. The backdrop remains supportive, but expectations ...
The divergence across frontier markets is likely to widen. Kenya, Kazakhstan, and Sri Lanka are well placed to outperform, while Pakistan is vulnerable. We offer several trade ideas to capture this divergence....
